Subject: [6gip] xG evolution by years, and a forecast

From: Alexandre Petrescu <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 27 Dec 2021 21:03:59 +0100

Hi, 6GIP,

I did recently a small research of when the various generations (2G, 3G, 
etc.) appeared and tried to identify the tendency in order to make a 
forecast.

2G - 1991, operator Radiolinja in Finland

3G - 2005, operator Tre ('3') in Italy

4G - 2015, various operators such as SFR and Orange in France

5G - 2020, operator SFR in France

(the precise dates, places and status of deployment, such as trial or 
public, are approximate and indeed debatable).

By this logic, it seems there is an acceleration between generations.  
The difference between generations was: 14 years, 10 years, 5 years.

The forecast is that 6G would be expected earlier than 2025, and 7G 
before 2030.

What do you think?

Alex

---

From: <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 28 Dec 2021 09:32:57 +0000

Bonjour Alexandre,

For a more accurate forecast, you should consider standard releases (3GPP/IUT) rather than announced commercial rollouts (for which some of them were kind of "fake news", i.e. claiming being 4G whereas it was only 3G+, same for 5G).

For 3GPP, it is important to check the exact content of each release.

Here is a brief summary for 3GPP:

5G

Release 16

2020-07-03 (SA#88-e)

Phase 2

Release 15

2019-03-22 (SA#83)

Phase 1 (New radio and http-based core)

4G

Release 14

2017-03-10 (SA#75)

Release 13

2015-12-11 (SA#70)

Release 12

2014-09-17 (SA#65)

Release 11

2012-09-12 (SA#57)

Release 10

2011-03-23 (SA#51)

Release 9

2009-12-10 (SA#46)

Release 8

2008-12-11 (SA#42)

New radio and new Diameter core

3G

Release 7

2007-03-15 (SA#35)

Release 6

2005-03-17 (SA#27)

Release 5

2002-03-14 (SA-#15)

Introduction of SIP-based IP Multimedia system

Release 4

2001-03-22 (SA-#11)

Release 2000

Release 1999

1999-12-17 (SA-#6)

UMTS

1999-02-12 (SMG-#28)

New Radio

Therefore, you can see that there are:
9 years between 3G and 4G
11 years between 4G and 5G

What is true is that discussions on the next generation start sooner and sooner generation after generation.

My2Cts,

Lionel

Orange Restricted
De : 6gip <[email-masked]> De la part de Alexandre Petrescu
Envoyé : lundi 27 décembre 2021 21:04
À : [email-masked]
Objet : [6gip] xG evolution by years, and a forecast

Hi, 6GIP,

I did recently a small research of when the various generations (2G, 3G, etc.) appeared and tried to identify the tendency in order to make a forecast.

(the precise dates, places and status of deployment, such as trial or public, are approximate and indeed debatable).

By this logic, it seems there is an acceleration between generations.  The difference between generations was: 14 years, 10 years, 5 years.

The forecast is that 6G would be expected earlier than 2025, and 7G before 2030.

What do you think?

Alex

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From: Alexandre Petrescu <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 30 Dec 2021 11:06:19 +0100

Thank you very much!  I will refer to the table you posted.

Indeed the stds show a slower growth in generations.  By it, one could
expect the first 6G specs published and approved (term?) at 3GPP maybe
in 2032.  Because of this sequence of first specs at 3GPP: 1999 3G, 2008 
4G, 2019 5G.

This is indeed different than my speculation of dates of various
deployment announcements - very approximative, based on personal
rememberings.  That says 6G and 7G would be trialled before 2030,
following an acceleration between generations.  It might be wrong.

Also, a little detail about what happened between 2G and 3G, when 3GPP
did not exist.  I think 3GPP specified indeed 3G, but not 2.5G (GPRS,
EDGE).  I think these were specified by ETSI.  If true, I am looking for
ETSI dates of publication of first 2G, GPRS and EDGE standards.  Just
for information.

Alex

Le 28/12/2021 à 10:32, [email-masked] a écrit :
> Bonjour Alexandre,
> 
> For a more accurate forecast, you should consider standard releases 
> (3GPP/IUT) rather than announced commercial rollouts (for which some
> of them were kind of “fake news”, i.e. claiming being 4G whereas it
> was only 3G+, same for 5G).
> 
> *De :* 6gip <[email-masked]> *De la part de* Alexandre
> Petrescu *Envoyé :* lundi 27 décembre 2021 21:04 *À :* [email-masked] 
> *Objet :* [6gip] xG evolution by years, and a forecast
> 
> Hi, 6GIP,
> 
> I did recently a small research of when the various generations (2G,
> 3G, etc.) appeared and tried to identify the tendency in order to
> make a forecast.
> 
>  Ce message et ses pieces jointes peuvent contenir des informations
> confidentielles ou privilegiees et ne doivent donc pas etre diffuses,
> exploites ou copies sans autorisation. Si vous avez recu ce message
> par erreur, veuillez le signaler a l'expediteur et le detruire ainsi
> que les pieces jointes. Les messages electroniques etant susceptibles
> d'alteration, Orange decline toute responsabilite si ce message a ete
> altere, deforme ou falsifie. Merci.
> 
> This message and its attachments may contain confidential or
> privileged information that may be protected by law; they should not
> be distributed, used or copied without authorisation. If you have
> received this email in error, please notify the sender and delete
> this message and its attachments. As emails may be altered, Orange is
> not liable for messages that have been modified, changed or
> falsified. Thank you.
>

---

From: Rex Buddenberg <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 30 Dec 2021 08:56:05 -0800

Alex

All cellphone technologies 3G and earlier were point-point, non-
routable systems. The generational changes incorporated improvements in
transmission, not switching. Circuit switch; plugged into the PSTN
(public switched telephone network).

LTE, by contrast, is a routable network segment. Packet switch. It's
plugged into the internet, not the PSTN.  This is a one-time big deal
change; the transmission did indeed change (OFDM) but the migration to
routable packet switch is more significant.
     The ballooning in internet apps occurred once cellphones became
internet nodes rather than dial-up telephones that happened to use
wireless links.

b

On Thu, 2021-12-30 at 11:06 +0100, Alexandre Petrescu wrote:
> > What is true is that discussions on the next generation start
> > sooner
> > and sooner generation after generation.
> > 
> > My2Cts,
> > 
> > Lionel
> > 
> > Orange Restricted
> > 
> > ___________________________________________________________________
> > ______________________________________________________
> >

---

From: John Grant <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 31 Dec 2021 11:04:18 +0000

On 30/12/2021 16:56, Rex Buddenberg wrote:
> change
Effectively from a system for having conversations (where latency is an 
issue) to one for messaging and accessing data (where it isn't, or 
anyway not to the same extent). Following the change in user behaviour 
that began when text messaging was introduced, and became unexpectedly 
popular.

Now 6G is proposing to support the latency-sensitive applications that 
were promised for 5G but didn't happen.

-- 
John Grant
Nine Tiles, Cambridge, England
+44 1223 862599 and +44 1223 511455
http://www.ninetiles.com

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