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Energy and Environment
Trump nearing a decision on whether to pull U. S.  from Paris climate deal, breaking ranks with more than 190 countries 
By Chris Mooney May 31 at 11:57 AM 
 Play Video 1:18
What you need to know about the Paris Agreement on climate change
The Paris Agreement is an international agreement to lower worldwide greenhouse gas emissions in order to mitigate climate change.  Here's what you need to know.  (Daron Taylor/The Washington Post)
President Trump is nearing a final decision on whether to withdraw from the Paris climate agreement, with one White House official saying Wednesday that the president is leaning toward an exit but three others cautioning that he has not reached a verdict. 

The matter has deeply divided the administration.  Ivanka Trump and Secretary of State Rex Tillerson have urged the president to remain in the deal, and White House strategist Stephen K.  Bannon and Environmental Protection Agency Administrator Scott Pruitt have been pushing for a withdrawal. 

[Analysis: Whatever Trump decides on Paris, he’s already taken the U. S.  out of the climate game]

A withdrawal would put the United States in the same camp as Nicaragua and Syria: a tiny group of countries refusing to participate in the almost universally supported Paris climate change agreement. 

Trump added to the intense speculation about the future of the agreement Wednesday morning, tweeting that his decision will be announced “over the next few days. ”

More than 190 nations agreed to the accord in December 2015 in Paris, and 147 have since formally ratified or otherwise joined it, including the United States — representing more than 80 percent of the world’s greenhouse gas emissions. 

A U. S.  withdrawal would remove the world’s second-largest emitter and nearly 18 percent of the globe’s present-day emissions from the agreement, presenting a severe challenge to its structure and raising questions about whether it would weaken the commitments of other nations. 

[These experts say it may actually be best if the U. S.  left the Paris climate agreement]

Trump has already, through executive orders, moved to roll back key Obama administration policies, notably the EPA’s Clean Power Plan, that comprised a key part of the U. S. ’s Paris promise to reduce its emissions 26 percent to 28 percent below their 2005 levels by 2025. 

As of 2015, emissions were 12 percent lower, according to the U. S.  Energy Information Administration. 

The Paris decision has deeply divided the administration, with internationalists, such as Tillerson, arguing that it would be beneficial to the United States to remain part of negotiations and international meetings surrounding the agreement, as a matter of leverage and influence. 

All but two countries are in the Paris climate agreement.  The United States could be the third.  VIEW GRAPHIC
Conservatives, such as Pruitt, have argued that the agreement is not fair to the United States and that staying in it would be used as a weapon by environmental groups seeking to fight Trump environmental policies. 

As a result of Trump’s environmental policies, it has been clear hat it would be impossible to honor the Obama administration’s Paris pledge. 

That leaves Trump with two clear choices: withdraw from Paris or revise the U. S.  pledge downward to something more realistic in light of domestic policies, but nonetheless stay in the accord. 

[Just don’t call it ‘climate change’: How the government is rebranding in the age of Trump]

A downward revision would certainly prompt criticism from the international community, but not nearly so much as an abandonment.  The Paris agreement is, after all, the first global accord on climate change action that has managed to unify both developed and developing nations behind a single framework to cut emissions. 

Moreover, the accord is flexible in the sense that it does not mandate that any nation achieve any particular level of emissions cuts.  Rather, every nation under the agreement pledges to do the best it can, and to participate in a process in which nations will regularly increase their ambitions over time. 

The ultimate goal is to hold the warming of the planet to “well below” two degrees Celsius (3. 6 degrees Fahrenheit) of warming above the temperatures found in the preindustrial times of the late 1800s.  The Earth is already about one degree Celsius (1. 8 degrees Fahrenheit) warmer than it was at that time, scientists have determined, and current and near future emissions seem quite likely to take the planet past 1. 5 degrees C (2. 7 degrees F) in the coming decades. 

According to the agreement, a party that has fully joined the accord, as the United States has, cannot formally withdraw for three years after the date of joining — and that is then capped by an extra year-long waiting period. 

[ExxonMobil is trying to fend off a shareholder rebellion over climate change]

If this language frustrates Trump enough, he could opt to withdraw from the more foundational U. N.  Framework Convention on Climate Change, which laid the groundwork for the Paris deal and was signed by President George H. W  Bush and ratified by the Senate in the early 1990s. 

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The science and policy of environmental issues. 
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But that is an even more radical move, which would further withdraw the United States from all international climate change negotiations. 

It will be difficult for the president to argue that the Paris agreement hurts the U. S.  economy, given that it has been overwhelmingly supported by U. S.  businesses, and given that its flexibility means that it does not impose any specific requirement to cut emissions by a particular amount. 

Because the United States is the second-largest emitter, removing the country from Paris could also remove 21 percent of the emissions reductions that would have been achieved by 2030, according to an analysis by the think tank Climate Interactive.  Other countries would have to make up the difference, with the likeliest candidates being China — the world’s top emitter — or India, a nation expected to experience some of the fastest emissions growth in coming decades. 

Philip Rucker contributed to this report. 

Read more:

Secretary Rex Tillerson signed a statement supporting Arctic science.  Trump’s budget would cut it. 

These fossil-fuel groups joined a historic climate lawsuit.  Now, they want out

So much water pulsed through a melting glacier it warped the Earth’s crust

EPA remains top target with administration proposing 31 percent budget cut

Scientists say the pace of sea level rise has nearly tripled since 1990

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Chris Mooney reports on science and the environment.   Follow @chriscmooney
 
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