Subject: [Manycouches] Expect to see international global travel bans for at least another year.

From: Phillip Hallam-Baker <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 24 Jan 2021 13:26:13 -0500

So setting aside the politics, the 'UK' variant of COVID has now been
traced to South Africa. Where the variant began is irrelevant, the same
would hold if the variant had emerged in the UK and been exported.

South Africa coronavirus variant: 77 cases found in UK - BBC News
<https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-55786409>

The UK is pretty much unique in Europe in keeping its borders open
throughout the pandemic. Which is rather surprising given the whole premise
of Brexit was to keep the foreigners out.

As these circumstances are digested, we should expect to see the logical
conclusion being drawn that the only way to beat the COVID thing is to
compartmentalize and firewall lest a vaccine resistant strain emerge
leading to a breakout in the parts of the world where the vaccine brought
COVID under control.

The important part here is that far from encouraging countries to open up,
the vaccinations will increase the pressure to isolate.

This is not an analysis you are likely to be seeing in the popular media or
in politics for another 3-5 months. But I am pretty sure we will get there.
People were still ridiculing the notion that there would be a lockdown
after it started to happen. The notion that locking down the economy for a
year and hoping to be rescued by a vaccine was still being ridiculed back
in July.

---

From: Alexandre Petrescu <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 25 Jan 2021 10:17:47 +0100

I agree there will be more and more travel bans, and for more than year 
2021.

The airlines consistently said (before vaccine news, and after, before 
variants, and after) they'd expect back to normality somewhere in year 
2024 at earliest.

I think one would benefit from trying to plan for that and still strive 
to find a way to safely accommodate f2f parts of meetings for IETF.

Below are all IMHOs, I am not a specialist of this field.

Alex

Le 24/01/2021 à 19:26, Phillip Hallam-Baker a écrit :
> throughout the pandemic. Which is rather surprising given the whole 
> premise of Brexit was to keep the foreigners out.

Belgium is also unique in declaring selfly to stop its citizens from 
going abroad (unless exception).

> leading to a breakout in the parts of the world where the vaccine 
> brought COVID under control.

Because of the illusion of the word 'vaccine' (they dubbed it so, but 
it's so different than other traditional vaccines in more than simply 
their composition; they differ in other fundamental ways, e.g. they 
wouldnt eradicate COVID, like a vaccine eradicated measles (rougeole)), 
one still thinks a situation to come back to normal in October.

Compartmentalize and firewall - I think indeed that is the tendency.

For Ebola I think they did a lot of compartmentalize and firewall, up to 
a point that one wonders who succeeded in eradicating: the ebola vaccine 
or the compartmentalizeing.

For AIDS - it is clearly the compartmentalizing/firewall that works 
(refraining) and not any vaccine.

For coronavirus: we dont even know clearly how this is transmitted. 
Here there is some advice to even stop talking on the phone in the 
subway even if wearing a mask.

> The important part here is that far from encouraging countries to open 
> up, the vaccinations will increase the pressure to isolate.
> 
> This is not an analysis you are likely to be seeing in the popular media 
> or in politics for another 3-5 months. But I am pretty sure we will get 
> there. People were still ridiculing the notion that there would be a 
> lockdown after it started to happen. The notion that locking down the 
> economy for a year and hoping to be rescued by a vaccine was still being 
> ridiculed back in July.

I agree.

Alex

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