Subject: Re: [Manycouches] IETF 113 will be a hybrid onsite/online meeting in Vienna, Austria

From: Alexandre Petrescu <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 17 Jan 2022 16:02:53 +0100

Le 24/12/2021 à 23:46, Alexandre Petrescu a écrit :
[...]
> 
> 270days (9month) Austria expiration time of a dose is probably an old
> info that would probably be modified soon.  It would be strange an EU
> country thinks different than another, in this respect.  IT would be
> strange that _any_ country to think differently, because we are all homo
> sapiens, in whatever country.  But I should ask Austrians.

I asked today two colleagues in Austria.

They debate whether it is 9 months or 6 month, having recently changed. 
  Hearing the discussion it seems the person saying 6 month is more 
right, it seems to me.

After some research, I found the following current status: the number 
varies from 9 month to 6 weeks, from various people.  A statistician 
agrees with me saying the number depends a lot on the person.  A recent 
paper says the number depends on the vaccine model-name (pfizer 
comirnaty, jannsen etc.), on the variant of virus if met, and other 
variables.  It goes as far as saying the immunity time grows for some 
combination of variables, whereas for others it wanes.

Wondering about when to do the 4th dose?  Israeli team in December, and 
the EMA on Jan. 11th, say more data is needed, and until then strategy 
might need to change: repeated boosting at so short time may lead to 
fatigue of 2 kinds (of personal immune system, and of population at 
large) and strategy should change after 4th dose (some strategies are 
proposed).

A new to me term is also vehiculated, called 'immunity imprint'.  This 
has to do with variants and vaccine kinds.  Some are optimistic about 
that imprint, others are pessimistic.

Do you know?  How long can one wait after the 2nd dose (e.g. Pfizer) and 
then take the 3rd dose - 9 month or 6 months?

Alex

> 
> There are other infos that circulated recently from people with
> reputation: it was said that 3rd dose would be last.  Is that still
> true?  I will know that at latest in March.
> 
> About the science of this.  I am not a medical person, but this is what
> I he.ard  Immunity is a pair of two things: cell memory immunity, and
> antibodies.  The first cant be measured and is not understood, but it
> works when it works.  The second can be measured in a blood sample.
> Both help one to fight the virus, it is an AND.  Whatever we know about
> the second (the antibodies) can be nullified by the first: one can have
> no antibodies and still kill viruses, we dont know why.  But if we have
> many antibodies then we are sure to fight well.  The curve of antibody
> depletion after dose is an asymptotical; it was measured - statistically
> - among many people, and they came up with this 7 month number.  But in
> an asymptotical there is certainly not just one number, but several (the
> fall is not a dirac signal, nor a rectangular on-off signal).  Also,
> that common curve is not my curve - it is a statistic mean of many
> people, just like the weight of newborn babies: some cruise above
> whereas others swim below.   I dont know mine precisely.
> 
> Also, I am told by person I trust when we talk Comp. Sci. is that this
> vaccine generates something that stays in the body for a long time,
> hence he does not vaccinate, independently of 3, 4, 5, 6 or 7 month
> spacing between doses.  Just hold on to it as much as possible: not
> travel, not see anyone, mask all the time, etc.
> 
> Alex
> 
>>
>> Sent using a machine that autocorrects in interesting ways...
>>
>>> On Dec 24, 2021, at 5:47 AM, Olivier MJ Crépin-Leblond <[email-masked]> 
>>> wrote:
>>>
>>> There are probably also some procedural protocols that can also be 
>>> learnt from the recent IGF, but I'm afraid to have to say that the 
>>> Omicron variant is likely to change a lot of these parameters. 
>>> Colleagues in London are confirming first hand that the contagion 
>>> level is unprecedented.
>>
>> _______________________________________________ Manycouches mailing 
>> list [email-masked] 
>> https://www.ietf.org/mailman/listinfo/manycouches
> 
> _______________________________________________
> Manycouches mailing list
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> https://www.ietf.org/mailman/listinfo/manycouches

---

From: Vittorio Bertola <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 17 Jan 2022 16:19:48 +0100 (CET)

> Il 17/01/2022 16:02 Alexandre Petrescu <[email-masked]> ha scritto:
> 

It depends on the context for the question.

If you are talking in sanitary terms, as you were doing in your message, then there is no answer: the protection level will decline over time with a curve that strongly depends on you, so it is up to you individually to decide when you think that it has become so low, or the risk of contagion so high, that you'd better get the third dose.

If you are talking in legal terms, you should follow the policies of your own country and later see if they allow you to meet the policies that will be valid in Austria in March, which may still change before then. Generally speaking, if you are interested in doing any travel outside of your home country in [1H]2022 for any reason, my advice to maximize your chances would be to get any shot your country is ready to give you, as soon as you can get it.

(I got my third dose in Italy in mid December, five months after my second one. Now they give third doses after four months.)

-- 
Vittorio Bertola | Head of Policy & Innovation, Open-Xchange
[email-masked] 
Office @ Via Treviso 12, 10144 Torino, Italy