Subject: [NEXTEL-1] Wireless software predictions for 2003

From: Marcel <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 31 Dec 2002 16:33:29 -0500

Wireless software 
predictions for year 2003

12-31-2002 

Some predictions for upcoming year related to wireless software.

Here are some predictions from WirelessSoftware.info regarding upcoming year: 

3G cellphones will face serious competition from Wi-Fi (wireless LANs) because number of
Wi-Fi hotspots will increase significantly and mobile Internet experience with Wi-Fi will
be much cheaper than 3G; actually the whole business case of 3G will become doubtful - 3G
becoming an invention of hardware vendors to suck big money out of poor network operators
rather than serious case for bringing real new services to end customers

cheap (around 200 US dollars) Pocket PCs (for example from Dell) will beat volume-wise
Palm devices on many markets and will start attacking Symbian in smartphone area in form
of cheap Pocket PC phones
 
cellphones with MS Smartphone 2002 operating system will reach USA and will become
available for subscribers of many operators worldwide, not only for Orange customers 

cellphones with MS Smartphone 2002 oprerating system and with built-in camera will come to
the markets 
over 10 new models of Symbian based phones will be available commercially by the end of
2003
 
Nokia will announce first cellphones based on Symbian with touchscreen and with increased
(compared to current Nokia communicators) resolution, that however will NOT be based on
UIQ/Symbian 7.0 as it is in Sony Ericsson P800
 
fragmentation of Symbian cellphones market will increase: many (at least 4, maybe more)
Symbian platforms (see also previous point) will be co-existing at the same time -
developers will have it hard to write Symbian programs for all platforms at the same time
because programs for one platform will not work on another platform and each of them will
require different development tools
 
.NET Compact Framework for cellphones with MS Smartphone 2002 will NOT be released - it
will be offered for next version of this operating system
 
Microsoft will announce in year 2003 the new operating system for smartphones; working
name: "MS Smartphone 2003" but final name will be different; interesting feature of this
operating system: it will have built-in .NET Compact Framework for smartphone -
Microsoft's answer to wireless Java that is 
first cellphones equipped with Java API for Bluetooth will become available commercially -
it will create possibility to write Java midlets that can communicate through Bluetooth
and that can run on cellphones and PDAs (Palm) from different vendors
 
Java MIDP 2.0 implementation will become available in many cellphones on the market; that
will make programming of games in wireless Java much easier, but fragmentation of wireless
Java will increase 

faster Wi-Fi - wireless LAN standards will be spreading - mainly 802.11g
 
improved security in Wi-Fi thanks to 802.11x from Microsoft
 
native support for Bluetooth in Windows XP will allow Microsoft again to enforce its own
standards on industry - that can be good because nowadays interoperability of Bluetooth
devices is still low
 
recovery of wireless industry will begin in year 2003, but it is unclear exactly when
 
new major operating system for PCs from Microsoft - code name "Longhorn" - will NOT be
available in 2003, but in 2004
 
CDMA 1x will become serious alternative for GSM/GPRS for cellphones users, particularly in
USA and in East Asia; Microsoft powered cellphones from Samsung, both smartphones and
Pocket PC phones, will be major breakthough here
 
in Symbian-Microsoft wars, Microsoft will be LOSING to Symbian in year 2003, mainly
because of totally mistaken strategy with certification/signing in case of cellphones
powered by MS Smartphone 2002 (developers cannot make freeware applications and run them
on regular cellphones but need to pay big money for certification and need to go through
the heavy and long certification process); the blame game between Microsoft and operators
will continue in year 2003 but it will be too late - Microsoft will lose smarpthone wars
because of this mistake the in year 2003 (Symbian phones allow for installation of
uncertified, unsigned applications and leave it to end users to decide - in MS Smarpthone
OS it is not end user but operator who decides - user does not own the cellphone but
operator owns therefore - these certification/signing problems in MS Smarpthone constitute
the BIGGEST WIRELESS SOFTWARE SCANDAL OF YEAR 2002) 

http://wirelesssoftware.info/show1news.php/818.html

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