Subject: [NEXTEL-1] Strategy Analytics Publishes Top 10 Global Wireless Predictions for 2003-GSM and Nextel doing battle.

From: Marcel <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 20 Dec 2002 02:13:55 -0500

Strategy Analytics Publishes Top 10 Global Wireless Predictions for 2003

Story Filed: Thursday, December 19, 2002 2:09 PM EST

BOSTON, Dec 19, 2002 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- In 2003, the Strategy Analytics Global Wireless
Practice expects solid
subscriber growth in Asia, disappointing consumer MMS & 3G ramp up in mature markets,
surging Asian vendor handset
presence and an impressive growth rate for enterprise Instant Messaging and SMS.

1. W-CDMA 3G subscribers fail to break 5M as global subscribers pass 1.2B in 2003.

With Japan's NTT DoCoMo still the sole standard-bearer for the W-CDMA technology in the
face of ever-lengthening 3G
launch delays by European operators, 2003 will be another non-event for the W-CDMA strain
of 3G.

2. Verizon Communications falls from global mobile top 10

Strategy Analytics expects Vodafone to relieve Verizon of its largest international
wireless asset, Italy's Omnitel, in 2003,
resulting in its exit from the global top 10. Upward momentum in the rankings coming
entirely from players with strong emerging
markets exposure, most notably Telefonica and America Movil.

3. Debt Loads to force Consolidation with T-Mobile US top of List

T-Mobile's new management will find the pressure to divest non-core assets irresistible.
T-Mobile & Cingular will merge to
provide Cingular with coverage and spectrum relief and a realistic basis for competition
with 2 national CDMA, 2 National
GSM and Nextel doing battle.

4. Downloadable games will be the fastest growing consumer application during 2003,
generating $2 Billion by the end of the
year.

Prices will come under intense price competition as third party distributors and 3G
entrants aggressively attack the market. The
vision of arcade style charging mechanisms, including expiry periods on games and payment
for additional levels/ credits will not
see widespread deployment by mobile games arcades until towards the end of the year as
operators look to educate users and
ensure that handset memory is robust enough to provide adequate quality of service.

5. Picture messaging will suffer from slower than anticipated growth throughout 2003.

Free trials, slower than anticipated cross-network interoperability, persistent problems
with the quality of phone to email MMS,
the fact that only 7 percent of phones sold during the year will contain an integrated
camera, and a continued failure to properly
educate customers at the retail POS, will all serve to dampen MMS usage.

6. SMS and email use within enterprises will remain on an accelerated growth trajectory
generating nearly $6 Billion in revenues
globally in 2003.

Instant Messaging will experience the most dramatic growth in the enterprise with
worldwide revenues growing to over $2
Billion by 2007 (a 58 percent CAGR). Within six years, IM will overtake email as the
dominant modality of written electronic
communications.

7. While consumer adoption of MMS will sputter in the short term, MMS and other means of
wireless photo/video messaging
will find a surprisingly receptive market in the enterprise sector.

Medical services, construction, manufacturing and other "expert systems" will leverage
mobile imaging technologies as a means
of remotely tapping into a finite supply of centralized expertise for assistance. Strategy
Analytics predicts that enterprises
worldwide will spend over $1 Billion on photo and video messaging, growing in 2003.

8. Samsung 20 percent profit margins fuel a challenge to Motorola's #2 market share
position.

Motorola is vulnerable in volume GSM mid- and entry-level categories. The Connected Youth
and Technopreneur (young
business professionals) segments will determine winners and losers. Samsung's strength in
mid range GSM categories will
enable them to slide popular mid range handsets into entry level segments in 2003 directly
impacting a Nokia stronghold and a
Motorola weakness.

9. LG overtakes SEMC in the top 5 global handset vendors as shipments Post Modest Growth

LG will not pause to blink at Sony Ericsson who has continued to disappoint operators and
failed to deliver on entry and mid
range products. A parting of the SEMC venture is most likely in 2003 with Ericsson most
likely to depart. Sony will leverage its
consumer brand to resurrect the product line, but will have little ability to stop its
slide from the top 5 in 2003.

10. 160 Percent growth in shipments of wireless PDAs expected in 2003.

Palm will experience a `bubble' of growth on launching its new operating system that
allows it to maintain 50 percent operating
system market share through 2003 while H-P and Toshiba lead PocketPC based vendors.

    About Strategy Analytics

Strategy Analytics, Inc., a global research and consulting firm, provides timely insights
and strategic business solutions to
companies operating at the convergence of information, communications and entertainment
technologies. With worldwide
headquarters in Newton, MA and principal offices in England, France and Germany, Strategy
Analytics focuses on market
opportunities and challenges in the areas of Automotive Electronics, Broadband,
Telematics, Wireless Strategies and Enabling
Technologies. For more information, see www.strategyanalytics.com.

CONTACT:          Strategy Analytics, Inc.
                  European Contact:
                  Phil Kendall, +44(0) 1908 423 628
                  pkendall @strategyanalytics.com
                  or
                  US Contact:
                  David Kerr, 617/614-0720
                  [email-masked]

http://www.strategyanalytics.com
http://library.northernlight.com/FE20021219190000083.html?cb=0&dx=1006&sc=0#doc

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