Subject: [NEXTEL-1] Public Wi-Fi: The New Teledesic?

From: Marcel <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 17 Dec 2002 13:45:51 -0500

Public Wi-Fi: The New Teledesic?
BY BILL MENEZES, EDITOR IN CHIEF
DECEMBER 16, 2002

Imagine a broadband network providing public access to the Internet from a
huge number of wireless access points scattered widely enough to provide
virtually ubiquitous mobile coverage.

That description may sound a lot like the national wireless LAN strategy unveiled
by Cometa Networks but it really is a description of Teledesic, the stillborn
system backed by Bill Gates, Craig McCaw and other visionaries to create mobile
broadband Internet access through a constellation originally consisting of nearly
1,000 low earth orbit satellites.

What do the two have in common? More than you'd think.

The two share a vision of widespread broadband data service for mobile devices,
in the case of Cometa through a wholesale-oriented network of 20,000 Wi-Fi
access points deployed in major markets.

They also share a vision without much apparent footing in market reality, at least
the reality present at time of conception.

Despite hype that's approaching dot-com bubble proportions, public wireless LAN
service still seems to be a technology that's getting deployed for a market that
really just wants better in-building coverage from the next-generation wireless
networks.

Cometa wants to put a hot spot within a five-minute drive in major market
suburban communities. Are you kidding? Cometa's 20,000 access points–as
common sense and Andy Seybold would tell you–barely scratch the surface of the
coverage necessary to make public Wi-Fi a mass market product. That implies a
raft of further consolidations or roaming agreements among hot spot owners to
boost seamless coverage to the level that Cometa's talking about. Is there really
that much demand for public Wi-Fi access?

At present hot spot subscription prices, that's doubtful. A new analysis by our
sister company InStat/MDR notes that existing public hot spots have a typical
ratio of only seven paying users per location. Wi-Fi does provide the best
in-building wireless connection to the Internet, but take that away and hot spots
lose their appeal as anything but an ancillary access platform.

The real tool for attacking this mobile Internet access market that's begging to
be exploited is 3G. Not the watered-down early iterations such as GPRS and
CDMA 1XRTT, but the beefy upgrades provided by 1XEV-DO, EV-DV and UMTS
networks.

During the CDMA Americas Congress, I used the EV-DO network Verizon is testing
in San Diego. It's not a fully loaded network so speeds were optimal, but it
worked great. The critical factor was the mobility; no handoff required (or
re-logging on) when I moved from building to building. No expensive dial-up call
required from my hotel or reliance on a separate Wi-Fi network where I'd pay and
be billed separately for the service. No searching for a "Wi-Fi available here"
sign.

Even better, if service providers want to leverage WLAN availability, the
technology for handoffs between the mobile networks and Wi-Fi is already old
hat to the gear vendors; Airvana, for example, is demonstrating its solution to
enable a laptop to switch seamlessly between EV-DO and 802.11b networks.

Now that sounds more like a solution capable of helping create a market, instead
of one that has a good chance of getting lost in space.

Afterthought: After reading our competitor's coverage of the first day of Tom
Wheeler's final year with CTIA, my only thought was: Pass the lip balm!

http://www.wirelessweek.com/index.asp?layout=story&articleid=CA265815&spacedesc=Opinion&stt=000

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