Subject: [NEXTEL-1] Ricochet -Internet Speed Zone Ahead

From: Marcel <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 06 Dec 2002 14:48:49 -0500

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/nf/20021205/tc_nf/20158

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Technology - NewsFactor

Internet Speed Zone Ahead

Thu Dec 5, 1:32 PM ET

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Joe "Zonker" Brockmeier, www.NewsFactor.com

If you have been using the Internet long enough, you probably remember when a 33.6K
modem was considered a "high-speed" connection. Now, though, home users enjoy
speeds that were reserved for colleges and corporations 10 years ago.

•

The Trouble with DSL

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Speeding Up Broadband

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Key to 3G Success: Content

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The question is, will we continue to see the kind of gains that have taken place
over the last decade, or is there a limit to how fast we can go?

Supply and Demand

From this point forward, speeds may not increase as rapidly as they did in the past,
according to John Griebling, chief technology officer of Ricochet,
who said today's available speeds are adequate for most users.

"The fundamental reason that the telecom market and the broadband sector have experienced a downturn [is] because we've had more and more capacity, but the demand wasn't there to justify the continued investment," he told NewsFactor. "There's a catch-up occuring on the application side."

Right now, speed is not the top priority for Ricochet. "I think it's probably
number three or four on the priority list," Griebling said. "The speed that
Ricochet provides is in line with the needs of the applications that people
are using broadband for."

What Lies Ahead

But even if the present is relatively stagnant, future technologies will place increased
demands on the Internet. Griebling said media applications will be the primary force
behind future speed increases. He noted that although such applications have been
available for years, they have not been accessible to the mass market.

Carson Chen, vice president of cable business at Cisco (Nasdaq: CSCO - news),
agreed, telling NewsFactor that voice over IP (VoIP), real-time video and HDTV (high-definition television) are three innovations that will drive speed and performance boosts in the next three years.

Specifically, Chen said VoIP puts greater demand on networks because of its QoS
(Quality of Service) requirements. QoS guarantees that packets will be delivered in
real-time, enabling users to benefit from a constant bit rate and clear sound. Real-time
video feeds are even more demanding than VoIP because they require both bandwidth
and QoS to ensure that users receive video transmissions without packet loss.

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No Limits in Sight

But the real drain on network bandwidth will be HDTV, which requires about 19 megabits
per second (Mbps). Even so, Chen said he thinks providers will be able to deliver the goods when users need the speed. "The networks have the capacity to meet it; they'll scale to meet the demands of the market," he noted.

Griebling is also optimistic about the Internet's ability to meet demands placed
on it. "As long as we live, and as long as the next few generations live, you'll
continue to see new technologies that enable more throughput and more
speed and more applications that create the desire and need for speed," he said.

We are nowhere near the outer limit of Internet speed, technologically speaking.
But market needs often drive the pace of innovation, and the present seems to be a
relatively stagnant period. Fortunately, this slowdown is almost certainly temporary
and may end soon as rich media pushes Net speeds to the next level.

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