Subject: [NEXTEL-1] Coursey's Spectrum Skepticism

From: Marcelrf <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 07 Mar 2004 10:11:13 -0500

March 04, 2004
Coursey's Spectrum Skepticism

David Coursey at ZDNet AnchorDesk picks up on our
IEEE Spectrum article about the coming spectrum explosion.
(The End of Spectrum Scarcity)

David's job is to be cantankerous and pick fights.  So I'm not
offended by his comment that "My immediate reaction to [the
article] is, 'Keep dreaming.'"  He acknowledges that we make
a convincing case; he's just skeptical the spectrum-rich future
we paint will arrive quickly or without tradeoffs.

I'm not sure where exactly we disagree.  The IEEE Spectrum
article isn't a lyrical vision of infinite bandwidth; it's a point-by-
point account of where the new capacity will come from, and
why we're confident it's coming.  Even if you don't believe the
more exotic technologies we discuss, such as ultra-wideband,
will have any significant effect, there is still a huge amount of
spectrum coming on the market from simple FCC reallocations.

The kick from the unlicensed technologies will indeed take some
time to manifest itself fully.  But that's like dismissing the Web in
1994 or WiFi in 1999.  If we know that the wireless world is
going to be transformed, we shouldn't dismiss what's happening
because the process will take a few years.

I'm gratified that most of the comments to Coursey's column on
the ZDNet site defend our original article.  It doesn't help Coursey
that he throws in red herrings like the risk of cancer from cell
phones and the problems with spectrum auctions.  Our basic
argument, that more new wireless capacity will soon be made
available than over any comparable period in history, remains
unrefuted.

http://werbach.com/blog/

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