Subject: [NEXTEL-1] Tough sell for wireless data services

From: Marcelrf <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 20 Mar 2004 14:10:51 -0500

Thousands of cell phone industry executives are set
to gather in Atlanta next week, in search of new data
applications to offset plunging calling rates -- but
analysts say they could be in for a disappointment.

What's new:

Wireless data services will take center stage at the CTIA show,
as the cell phone industry searches for new sources of revenue
to offset dropping calling prices.

Bottom line:

The lack of common standards and interoperability could cloud
the future of cell phone data services and the higher-speed
networks they depend on.

Better devices and higher bandwidth mean that wireless data
applications--such as instant messaging on cell phones -- no 
longer have to be a mind- and thumb-numbing exercise. But in the
United States, the second-largest cell phone market in the world,
it's still a lot more convenient to use a wired Internet connection.

"Data just isn't growing" for the wireless market, Gartner analyst
Paul Dittner said.

Data services are shaping up as the central theme this year for the U.S.
wireless industry's largest annual trade show, Cellular
Telecommunications 
& Internet Association (CTIA) Wireless 2004
(http://www.ctiawireless2004.com/general/index.cfm  See you there! For a
select few stop by the Nextel-1 hospitality suite after Day 1 ).

Carriers are betting more heavily than ever on big growth for data
services 
as prices fall for voice calls, their main source of revenue. In the
United States, carriers have said that wireless data represents about 3
percent of overall revenue, compared with about 10 percent to 12 percent
in Europe and Asia.

Industry watchers said they are expecting a slew of announcements next
week
touting improvements in cell phone data services and the higher-speed
networks they depend upon. But a lack of common standards and
interoperability clouds the future for many of these.

Applications are central to the success of wireless data among
consumers,
executives have said. Among the applications slated for launch at CTIA
is
cell phone blogging (http://www.foneblog.ie/), in which text or pictures
can
be posted to a Web site directly from a cell phone. Japanese carrier NTT
DoCoMo is making its pitch to consumers with a new video phone, known as
the
900i.

In the services arena, Internet services company VeriSign plans to debut
a
product intended to secure business transactions made over cell phones,
a
feature that Vernon Irvin, an executive vice president, said is a key
missing ingredient in mobile e-commerce. And equipment maker SmartServ
(http://www.smartserv.com/) is expected to announce the introduction of
more
than 6,000 self-service vending machines that can use wireless payment
from
cell phones, to be placed in retail stores, restaurants and other
well-trafficked areas.

On the voice front, handset makers are expected to announce new services
that could extend the reach of popular "push to talk" technology.
Cingular
Wireless, the second-largest U.S. carrier, has developed a push-to-talk
service and on Friday was debating whether to debut it at CTIA,
according to
sources familiar with the plans. The company would be the fourth U.S.
wireless carrier to launch a push-to-talk service.

Analysts also said to expect new push-to-talk phones that run on the GSM
(Global System for Mobile Communications) standard, the basis of about
80
percent of the cell phones in the world.

Verizon Wireless, the largest carrier in the United States, will
announce
improvements to EV-DO, its "3G," or third-generation, wireless broadband
service, sources said. It is expected to offer more details on the EV-DO
adapters for desktops and laptops that it is planning to sell later this
year and to unveil details about its $80-a-month EV-DO service
BroadbandAccess
(http://www.verizonwireless.com/b2c/mobileoptions/broadband/index.jsp),
including which network equipment providers have won supply contracts,
sources said.

Microsoft plans to host its own wireless developer show next week in San
Francisco, where it is expected to release an update to its Windows
Mobile
operating system, which powers cell phones and handhelds. But the
software
giant also intends to make announcements at the CTIA show, sources said,
including the introduction of improvements to its location-based service
software for businesses.

Looming standards battles

Despite the big wireless data push, analysts said major infrastructure
issues could hold back services in the United States for years. Among
other
things, the region has yet to settle on a single cell phone standard--a
problem that's likely to get worse before it gets better.

All of the major U.S. carriers are expected to renew their support for
their
disparate choices (http://news.com.com/2100-1039-5160724.html?tag=nl) of
cell phone technology at next week's CTIA show, analysts said. Companies
range in their backing of GSM, CDMA (Code Division Multiple Access) and
TDMA
(Time Division Multiple Access). By contrast, European and Asian
carriers
long ago settled on GSM.

Bill Gough, a telecom industry manager in the Global Sales Organization
marketing group at Sun Microsystems, believes there's a direct
relationship
between large amounts of wireless data revenue and the presence of a
single
unified cellular standard.

"In Asia or Europe, there's homogeneity of technology that allows you to
have broad distribution of common services," he said. "In the United
States,
we have interoperable CDMA, TDMA, GSM, and each sometimes works in two
or
three different frequencies each."

Competing standards and interoperability problems could slow the growth
of
popular push-to-talk services, which are gaining acceptance among
carriers
around the world.

Most push-to-talk services currently use the CDMA and IDEN (Integrated
Dispatch Enhanced Network) standards, but plans are in the works to
extend
support to GSM and to develop technology that would work with all of the
major cell phone standards.

Mark Lowenstein, the managing director of Mobile Ecosystem
(http://www.m-ecosystem.com/), and several analysts said they believe
handset makers will introduce push-to-talk services for phones that use
the
GSM standard. That would bolster support for push-to-talk in networks
based
on GSM, the world's most widely adopted cell phone standard.

Pioneered by Motorola and Nextel Communications, push-to-talk allows
only
one person to speak at a time on a call. Although the service doesn't
offer
true two-way communication, it has taken off with business users because
it
can be cheaper and more efficient than standard cell phone service.

The arrival of GSM push-to-talk phones comes as some of biggest cell
phone
makers are working to develop multistandard support for push-to-talk,
although interoperability problems between Nokia and the rest of the
handset
industry threatens to spoil the party.

Nokia, Ericsson, Motorola and Siemens decided in October to use the same
push-to-talk standards and then to test their gear for
interoperability--but
the alliance seems to be fraying.

Ericsson executives earlier this week revealed that Nokia's push-to-talk
products do not work well with network software from other suppliers.

"The Finnish vendor's interoperability issues possess damaging
repercussions, since internetwork service could well be jeopardized were
Nokia's (PTT) platform out of step with the rest of the industry,"
analyst
Adrian Baschnonga wrote in a research note earlier this week from the
World
Markets Research Centre.

Nokia said in a statement on Tuesday that it will provide "a smooth
network
software upgrade path" for the technology.

EV-DO or EV-don't?

Next week should also see the cell phone industry continue its
longstanding
battle over wireless broadband standards.

At stake are two competing 2.4-megabit-per-second standards, EV-DV and
EV-DO, and a slower one that's shown surprising staying power, known as
EDGE
(Enhanced Data Rates for GSM Evolution).

EV-DV supports both voice calls and wireless data applications, while
EV-DO
can only be used for data sessions.

Verizon Wireless is among the biggest proponents of EV-DO, having
devoted $1
billion to build a nationwide EV-DO network that would challenge the
companies now providing the bulk of broadband services to businesses and
homes that have upgraded to DSL or cable modems.

At 300 to 500 kilobits per second, the BroadbandAccess service now
available
in San Diego, Calif., and in Washington, D.C., can compete admirably as
an
alternative to wired Internet providers, according to Verizon.

"The decision here is clear," Lawrence Babbio, vice chairman at Verizon,
said. "We'll be the first to launch a wireless high-speed broadband in
major
markets. And timing is everything in this business."

Sprint Communications, which owns the fourth largest U.S. cell phone
service, backs EV-DV, and plans to make this network central to its
future
plans. EV-DV is more expensive than EV-DO, but offers greater
flexibility.
Last week, during a presentation to analysts, Sprint CEO Gary Forsee
questioned the wisdom of choosing EV-DO to build a cell phone network
that's
only capable of handling data sessions, but not voice calls.

"There's a more efficient, better path, with EV-DV," Forsee told
analysts
this week.

The battle between competing wireless broadband standards has given
another
standard, called EDGE, room to grow even though it only provides
bandwidth
speeds of about 100kbps. EDGE was supposed to be a temporary step
carriers
would take before building the much faster 3G networks based on EV-DV
and
EV-DO. But it's lasted longer than many had expected, as carriers
struggle
to find the capital to buy 3G equipment.

"We see third-generation rollouts accelerating, but with EDGE as a
complement," Karl-Henrik Sundstrom, Ericsson's chief financial officer,
said.

http://news.com.com/2100-1039_3-5176279.html

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From: "Todd Ellis" <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 20 Mar 2004 15:30:20 -0500

Ad the reason data isn't growing is because the "killer app" hasn't been
jumped upon.  I think there's a lot of companies who could be spending their
R&D money more wisely thinking applications (and not those silly camera
thingies) instead of more esoteric, generic engineering/design feats
(smaller, faster, cuter).

Who would need a portable data recording/playback device?  Someone who likes
to download music and listen as they walk around town.  Think outside the
box...think applications.

Just my opinion...

Todd Ellis

-----Original Message-----
From: Marcelrf [mailto:[email-masked]] 
Sent: Saturday, March 20, 2004 2:11 PM
To: [email-masked]
Subject: [NEXTEL-1] Tough sell for wireless data services

What's new:

Bottom line:

EV-DO or EV-don't?

 
Yahoo! Groups Links

 
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---

From: "Steve Fleckenstein" <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 20 Mar 2004 21:29:53 -0500

> jumped upon.

In my neck of the woods my family owns one Verizon cellphone. I could really
use three units, one for each family member but monthly costs outweigh the
advantages so we share a single unit. Nextel would be great if the coverage
was equal to Verizon but it just is no place close. Cutesy unneeded but nice
to have things like overpriced photo transmissions may sell to kids or
people with money to burn but are not a must have killer app. for the mass
of population that has flatlined their paycheck.

Not sure if anyone knows what I am talking about here. I am the County RACES
Radio Officer, a volunteer amateur radio guy. We just had a fairly large and
well kept motor home donated to our group to convert into a comm vehicle.
First responders just love their PTT Nextel gear. I would love to offer
Nextel a spot on the comm vehicle to install some sort of a booster / remote
repeater thing to allow the first responders to use their PTT Nextel gear
during emergencies and during public service events allow the general public
to use their Nextel gear to keep in touch with their kids who get lost at
the airshows and other public events we work find ourselves supporting
during the year. A remote Nextel repeater in the comm van might be just
enough to get the signal out of some of the valleys and shadows we find
ourselves in.

You need to exploit the value of the product that is currently appreciated
by the public for more profitability by enhancing it's overall availability.

 But perhaps Nextel isn't interested in sucking up some profit by enhancing
coverage at a weekend airshows that have 20,000 attendees per day.

Steve
N2UBP

 
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---

From: "pmacafee" <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 21 Mar 2004 19:28:53 -0000

I agree Steve. Someone on the radio recently said that the "killer 
app" is connctivity itself. Maybe we should just admit that voice 
connectivty delivers 90% of what we need when we are mobile.

One limitation is that wireless is not as reliable as wired, so will 
people truly migrate work critical information systems, 
methodologies, and personal habits to something that at best 
works "most of the time"?

Another inherent problem as I see it is that wirless capability is 
limited because of spectrum, bandwidth and high conveyance costs. I 
wish we could lay spectrum the way we laid fiber optic cable in 
the '90s. Whatever the app sould be, it faces daunting ROI and 
cost/convenience hurdles.
 
One more issue is that there are 2 cross-current trends. One towards 
ever smaller mobile devices, and a contrary trend to move and display 
more data and with ever more complicated features.

And my personal peeve is that mobile device application providers for 
business seem to be completly out of touch with the end users of 
their products. The ROI scenarios that they paint just don't prove 
out in the real world. The three glaring examples are areas that 
Nextel virtually owns, mobile services, transportation and logistics 
are rife with costly applications that cause low tech industries and 
services to hire a room full of techies with six figure incomes to 
maintain an information stream to high turnover field employees that 
have little education or technical skills. And then you have to pay 
the handset provider, air time provider.

What really hurts is that the guys making the ROI cool-aid then price 
these things so that investors will pony up the money finance the 
creation and marketing of such schemes. Such pricing schemes put many 
mobile data service offerings out of the reach of most end users. 
Even "just a few dollars a month per field employee" makes me stop 
when I consider the total cost impact.

Mobile app provider web sites are full of "case studies" with early 
adopter clients raving about the benefits. Two years later the apps 
are abandoned, the vendor is gone and another site touts the 
new "killer app".

For the successful apps that remain it seems they are integrated into 
some transaction processing/CRM/back office total solution. 
Proprietary solutions like Airborne Express probable work because of 
large scale adoption of custom "right-on" features and a disciplined 
and more stable workforce.

For the rest, the trail of tears for web dispatch, avl services, 
location based travel services and the like stretches over the 
horizon.

I think the same is true for general public applications. I think we 
all have a personal ROI that keeps us from subcribing to wireless 
movie listings, restuarant guides and world news boiled down to 15 
word stories.

I found the posting "Talk, Don't Type" that showed up here a couple 
of months ago very compelling.

Wow, I feel better now.

Philip Macafee
Still waiting for the killer app to change my life!

--- In [email-masked], "Steve Fleckenstein" <spfleck@c...> 

 
Yahoo! Groups Links

---

From: "Todd Ellis" <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 21 Mar 2004 14:44:01 -0500

Phil:

Right on.  

First of all, to me, the real "killer app" is workforce management (WFM).  I
have professed this before in previous magazine articles.  Your comments are
right in line with reality.

I agree that companies are always looking at ROI issues, and as a separate
package, WFM can be a killer - too much money, never-see-the-light-of-day
type of thing.  Yet companies don't think twice about spending a mint on
supply chain management software systems, or statistical modeling software!
Look at SAS as an example.  SAS's CEO is our local town's resident
billionaire.  Yeah, with a "B" - to the tune of four billion bucks.  I think
there needs to be some strategic thinking done between wireless data
carriers and some of the bigger software houses, like SAS, to come up with
modules that interconnect back office software to WFM via wireless
technologies.  

But, then again, I'm just an unemployed dude.

Just my opinion...

Todd Ellis

-----Original Message-----
From: pmacafee [mailto:[email-masked]] 
Sent: Sunday, March 21, 2004 2:29 PM
To: [email-masked]
Subject: [NEXTEL-1] Re: Tough sell for wireless data services

 

Wow, I feel better now.

Philip Macafee

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From: "pmacafee" <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 22 Mar 2004 00:16:13 -0000

I too am interested in WFM but still captivated with the voice 
aspect. I think that if there was a simple way to add instant voice, 
text, and email to workflow hubs that we would get to that Gene 
Roddenberry place of instant connectivity.

 
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